Thursday, May 06, 2004

Today's stats quiz had an interesting question. It was the following:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of four doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door at random, say number 1. The host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens two other doors, say numbers 3 and 4, which both have a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door number 2?" To answer this, compute now the probability that you will win the car if you decided to switch.

Common sense told me that the probability would be half. In my next post I will tell you if that is correct or not. If you want to dig deeper, google for "Monty Hall Dilemma".

Today everyone is having so much fun that it looks as if we have a term break. I believe it is a well-deserved break after a stressful week. A one-year MBA requires one to put in so much more effort to cover a two-year's course material.

There was a session by an ex-Enron executive today. I did not attend, but heard it was pretty interesting. One thing we all master quickly at ISB is time management. With limited time on hand, we have to prioritise activities. So if we have a window of one hour, we need to decide if we want to prepare for next day's lecture, or work on that long case study, or hit the gym or swimming pool, or attend presentations by key executives of major corporations etc. We just can't have our cake and eat it too. I had planned to play some active sports or work out in the gym everyday, but it has become more like a once a week thing. Anyway, tomorrow I am definitely going to play some tennis, and probably also squash.

Will be back soon.

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